Is the recession over? I really wish I could say yes however; until there is a market improvement in unemployment, it’s a hard argue to make.
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The Geography of a Recession
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Technically, yes its over. According to real people though, no it wont be over until unemployment is way down.
The most optimistic Keynesian in the room of people would think so, surely. However, it is too early to conclude this situation is over as in we’re out of the woods; As I said, there are consequences to unprecedented deficits and to think those won’t be a lag is somewhat interesting at best. Arguing technically, one could surmise many stats in nominal terms; yet in real terms there are differences (like reality)
Output HAS stopped contracting, true. Of course unprecedented fiscal stimulus is going to cause some “needle moving” but will it be sustained? Way to far to conclude this is over and we’re out of the woods based on a technicality. I hope I am wrong.